Earlier this month, I hosted Crypto 2029, the first event in TSV’s 2029 series where we travel five years into the future of a particular industry with founders and operators to distill insights, challenges, and visions of what’s to come.
While Two Sigma Ventures’ focus on advanced computing and data has led us to invest in a variety of crypto-related startups over the last 6 years, my personal fascination with the space dates back to 2013 as the co-founder of SpeedDate (acquired by IAC), a live-video online dating service that used real-time matching algorithms to connect its 23 million members. Having worked extensively with centralized platforms like Facebook and iOS, the need for and potential of decentralized systems became obvious to me. This early fascination sparked a multi-year exploration of the crypto landscape, introducing me to numerous founders and industry leaders, several of whom we were proud to feature as panelists at Crypto 2029, such as:
- Rob Solomon, Co-founder of DIMO, the largest user-owned connected vehicle network making cars smart and programmable.
- Kuleen Nimkar, Business Development at Solana Foundation, the org dedicated to the decentralization, growth, and security of the Solana network.
- Austin King, Co-founder of Omni Network*, a blockchain platform designed to unify Ethereum’s rollups by establishing a high-throughput, low-latency global messaging network.
The one request I made; don’t be afraid to disagree or debate. They certainly delivered on that. Let’s dive into what 2029 holds.
Where Our Panelists See Crypto in 2029
User Experience Revolution
Austin expects that by 2029, crypto applications will be heavily abstracted from their current form. “I think over the next five years here, crypto’s going to move to a point where people use crypto apps and they don’t even know or really care,” he predicted.
The key to this seamless experience? A shift in how transaction costs are handled. “We’re going to get to a point where the developers are sponsoring the gas costs,” Austin explained. “Just like when you go to a website, the website doesn’t charge you to load the website. The devs just pay the cloud bill behind the scenes.”
Focus on Real-World Applications
Kuleen, however, argued that the primary challenge isn’t user experience, but rather creating compelling reasons for people to engage with crypto applications in the first place. He emphasized the need for more creativity in developing practical, non-speculative use cases. He elaborated, “So much money and attention goes toward building picks and shovels when there’s not a very good use for those picks and shovels.”
Building on this, Rob highlighted how crypto’s cyclical nature often hamstrings long-term innovation. “Every time there’s a cycle, you want to build something really cool and fundamental… [but] you can make twice as much money launching a coin in like three weeks,” Rob explained. He hopes that by 2029, we’ll have moved on to “breakthrough use cases that are useful to mainstream audiences.”
Increased Interoperability and Identity Solutions
Rob also emphasized a return to crypto’s roots. He wants to see a revival of the industry’s early focus on composability and interoperability “It used to be core to our ethos: composability, portable identity, and self-custody. We’ve gotten away from that, and I’d love to see us return to those principles by 2029.”
Here’s an example he provided: “Imagine earning badges in Dimo for completing road trips and offsetting your carbon footprint from your car. You could then take those badges into another app that collects various social achievements, see yourself on a leaderboard, and even combine them with credentials from other projects. It’s about piecing all these elements together.”
The Battle for Developer Attention
When asked about infrastructure, the panel had differing views on which blockchain platforms will dominate in 2029.
Kuleen, unsurprisingly, said Solana would be among the top platforms in 2029, with Ethereum maintaining a strong presence due to its established ecosystem. He sides with the consolidated landscape view over fragmentation: “I expect we’ll see some set of between two and five ecosystems that find some kind of traction…I do not think we’re going to live in a world where there’s hundreds of L1s.”
Austin drew a parallel between software development evolution and blockchain’s future, explaining how software moved from monolithic systems to more flexible microservices. Applying this concept to crypto, he suggested a highly decentralized landscape where every app is its own platform.
“I think what we’re going to get is a point where everybody’s effectively building on their own rollup,” Austin predicted. This vision sees each application operating on its own specialized blockchain, akin to microservices in modern software, with infrastructure layers connecting them behind the scenes.
Rob predicted that Ethereum would remain dominant, evolving to incorporate L2 technologies directly into its main chain. He envisioned a future where “all of the great L2 tech is more or less commoditized and rolled into native Ethereum L2s,” leading to a unified ecosystem with “one canonical kind of L2 instantiation.” This standardization, Rob argued, would simplify the current “messy L2 ecosystem” and shift innovation focus to higher-level services.
With such divergent views, we’ll just have to wait and see what 2029 brings.
Breakout Applications
Despite their differences, Rob, Kuleen, and Austin all identified several potential breakout categories on the application side (even agreeing on a few)!
- Decentralized Physical Infrastructure (DePIN): Token-incentivized networks in sectors like telecommunications and renewable energy.
- Stablecoin-powered Payments: All panelists agreed on the transformative potential of stablecoins, especially in regions with unstable currencies.
- Tokenized Assets: Potential for growth in the tokenization of traditional financial assets, driven by institutional adoption.
- Opt-in Data Sharing and Digital Identity: Austin highlighted the growing trend of users collecting NFTs (like POAPs) for events or activities, giving individuals control over their data in a decentralized manner. He believed we’ll see increased experimentation in this area over the next five years.
The Role of Regulation
While places like Dubai and Asia were thrown out as “friendly” regions for crypto, Rob, Kuleen, and Austin generally agreed that the United States would remain a hub for crypto innovation, despite regulatory challenges.
Kuleen summed it up perfectly: “The most friendly jurisdiction won’t be the US, but it’ll be the most productive because talent is what matters. It’s why most of us live here [New York City], not because it’s clean or the infrastructure runs well, or because we love paying taxes and rent. It’s because the smartest, most vibrant people are here. That effect trumps literally everything else.”
Looking Ahead: Bitcoin and Stablecoins
When asked about the future price of Bitcoin, predictions ranged from $150,000 to $800,000 by 2029. The panelists were unanimous in their belief that Bitcoin would maintain its position as the top cryptocurrency by market cap.
The audience’s forecasts were even further all over the map. Nonbelievers and bulls were split between $0 and $1B, with most hovering around the $250,000 mark.
I also asked Crypto 2029 attendees to share their predictions for the industry as part of the RSVP process, and a clear trend in expectations emerged: stablecoins success. One attendee even projected that “stablecoin market cap will exceed $1 trillion.”
Our panelists agreed; Rob was bullish on adoption, particularly outside the US, stating, “I think it’ll be huge. It would be disappointing if it wasn’t like $3 trillion by 2029.”
Kuleen offered a more nuanced view, focusing on specific use cases rather than overall volume. He explained, “I think it’s more that there’s specific use cases that become a hundred percent stablecoin.” He also emphasized the geographic aspect, noting, “I expect that it’ll happen ex-US.”
Looking Ahead
The night’s most revealing moment came when panelists were asked to identify the biggest threat to crypto adoption by 2029 in a single sentence. While scams and lack of creativity were mentioned, Rob answered: “An asteroid hitting the planet.” Our panelists may have disagreed on specific outcomes, but when only a cosmic catastrophe is seen as a true threat, it’s clear that crypto is here to stay.
Thank you again to Rob, Kuleen, and Austin for being the first to join the 2029 event series. I’m hosting more events under the 2029 series, so if you want to be the first to snag an invite, drop your email here. And if you’re building something in the space, reach out to me at dan@twosigmaventures.com. I’d love to hear about it!
